Precinct analysis: City and county


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If we know a small something about Excel (or in my case, OpenOffice Calc, that has a same simple functionality), it’s sincerely candid to calculate a opinion totals and percentages for several possibilities in several county, state, or sovereign districts. These districts are well-defined, and by that we meant they enclose a certain series of precincts in their entirity, and dual districts of a same sequence (i.e., dual State Rep districts) have no overlie between them. (That indeed isn’t accurately right, though it’s tighten adequate to not worry about.) It’s not a same for last a opinion in a city of Houston contra a rest of Harris County. City bounds do not heed to patrol boundaries. There are countless precincts that are partial Houston and partial not-Houston. When we first tried to do this, after a 2008 election, we wound adult counting a series of non-Houston votes as being from a city, that had a outcome of underestimating a Democratic commission by dual or 3 points. After removing some feedback on this, we refined my methodology and got a outcome that we suspicion was some-more accurate. It’s unequivocally an estimate, though I’m assured it’s in a ballpark.

This year, we have a advantage of a city of Houston holds and licence amendments on a ballot, that brand all of a precincts that enclose city of Houston voters. Obviously, we don’t wish to count all of a votes in any of those precincts as being city of Houston, for a reasons given above. You can demeanour during a particular precincts and see a handful of bond votes though hundreds or thousands of Presidential votes, so we know we can’t count a whole precincts. What we wound adult doing was counting a votes in any patrol that had during slightest 10 Yes votes for Proposition B, a parks bond that was a biggest leader among a bonds, as Houston precincts. It’s not exact, though it’s tighten enough. Here’s what we got from doing that:

Candidate Votes R Votes Pct ===================================== Garcia 381,103 211,886 64.3% Obama 371,755 242,953 60.7% Ryan 370,181 225,952 62.1% Trautman 367,587 226,185 61.9% Hampton 359,110 227,134 61.2% Sadler 356,630 242,658 59.5% Petty 356,110 225,061 61.3% Bennett 353,317 234,256 60.5% Henry 342,986 240,103 58.8% Oliver 342,701 252,168 57.6%

By this calculation, that remember is as most estimation as anything else, Obama mislaid 0.3 commission points from 2008, while Adrian Garcia mislaid about a indicate and a half. This is unchanging with a volume they mislaid altogether from 2008, so again we feel flattering confident. You can see that Garcia, Vince Ryan, and Diane Trautman all captivated some Republican support, while Mike Anderson, Christi Craddick, and Mike Sullivan all drew Democratic support.

Here’s a flipside, non-Houston Harris County, that is simply a totals above subtracted from a overalls:

Candidate Votes R Votes Pct ===================================== Garcia 230,860 310,551 42.6% Ryan 215,781 326,609 39.8% Trautman 214,896 326,012 39.7% Obama 213,696 341,913 38.5% Petty 208,702 321,146 39.4% Hampton 207,229 326,415 38.1% Bennett 206,689 328,248 38.6% Sadler 206,325 338,539 37.9% Oliver 199,443 343,351 36.7% Henry 198,206 334,588 37.2%

Pretty most what you’d design formed on a initial set of results, with a difference of Paul Sadler shifting down a few spots, for that I’d censure – again – his miss of resources. we review these amazing stories about a turnout effort in Ohio, and we ask myself again what that competence demeanour like if it were ever attempted here. we don’t unequivocally have anything some-more to supplement to this, so I’ll leave it here and we’ll continue with some-more research later.



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