Did Ted Cruz do improved in Latino areas than other Republicans?

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Lisa Falkenberg drops a following tidbit in her post-election mainstay on because a GOP in ubiquitous and in Texas needs to figure out how to interest to Latino voters.

In Texas, a best information so distant uncover a 70-30 separate for Obama among Hispanic voters, according to Rice University domestic scholarship authority Mark Jones. Romney achieved several points worse than Sen. John McCain did in 2008. At a same time, Jones points out, Hispanics became a incomparable share of a opinion in Texas, going from 20 percent in 2008 to 25 percent in 2012.

Republican Ted Cruz, who will turn a initial Hispanic U.S. senator from Texas, might have perceived a boost related to his surname. Exit polling showed he outperformed Romney and Republican congressional possibilities by 6 percent.

In a prolonged run, Republicans can’t rest on surnames to interest to Hispanics, nonetheless a few some-more on a list wouldn’t hurt.

“They’re going to have to strech out and do some-more than contend that ‘Hispanics have values that are identical to ours.’ That’s an aged refrain, that apparently is not temperament any fruit with a Hispanic population,” says Tatcho Mindiola, associate sociology highbrow and executive of a Center for Mexican American Studies during a University of Houston.

Falkenberg doesn’t contend what exit polls she was looking at. The Latino Decisions check of Texas usually asked about a Presidential competition and Democrats in general, so it’s of no assistance here. Be that as it may, we can proceed this doubt by comparing how Cruz did in heavily Latino counties to how Romney did. Here’s how he fared in a five counties we looked during final week.


County Obama Romney Sadler Cruz ========================================== Cameron 49,159 24,955 41,930 27,881 El Paso 112,273 56,517 101,467 59,237 Hidalgo 97,879 39,786 88,316 41,591 Maverick 8,302 2,171 6,550 2,674 Webb 37,592 11,074 30,431 14,943

Some of Paul Sadler’s dropoff in votes from President Obama can be attributed to a common downballot effect, though clearly Cruz outperformed Romney, and given his aloft opinion totals there had to be some Obama/Cruz electorate in any of these counties. In fact, if we demeanour during all of a counties in Texas where Cruz perceived some-more votes than Romney, we get a following list: Webb, Cameron, Ellis, Hidalgo, Maverick, Willacy, Starr, Zapata, Zavala, Dimmit, Kleberg, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Jim Wells, Frio, Culberson. So yes, he did do improved in heavily Latino areas, and I’m certain I’ll find a same outcome in Harris County when we get patrol data.

There’s a bit some-more to this, however. It wasn’t only Cruz who benefited from being Latino and carrying a non-Latino competition in these counties. For example, a Libertarian claimant using opposite Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman was a Latino. Take a demeanour during how he did contra how other non-Latino Libertarians did in statewide races where a Republican had no Democratic opponent. Here’s Cameron County, for example.


Railroad Commissioner - Unexpired Term Barry Smitherman REP 25,866 48.72% Jaime O. Perez LIB 23,875 44.97% Josh Wendel GRN 3,347 6.30% Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2 Don Willett REP 32,963 62.76% Roberto Koelsch LIB 19,555 37.23% Justice, Supreme Court, Place 4 John Devine REP 30,797 58.42% Tom Oxford LIB 17,212 32.65% Charles Waterbury GRN 4,707 8.92% Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 7 Barbara Hervey REP 32,107 61.09% Mark W. Bennett LIB 20,448 38.90% Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals Place 8 Elsa Alcala REP 36,619 68.72% William Strange LIB 16,664 31.27%

The same settlement binds for El Paso, Hidalgo, Maverick, and Webb counties. In a latter two, Libertarian claimant Perez scored a infancy of a opinion opposite Smitherman, that only blows my mind, and we will see a same outcome for Latino Democratic possibilities for a Fourth Court of Appeals, all of whom wound adult winning. These were all low-profile, low-information races – even a Senate competition was mostly next a radar, with Cruz avoiding debates and not using many ads, while Sadler hardly had a income to do any promotion – so it’s not too shocking. Because of all this, I’d be clever about sketch any organisation conclusions per Cruz and Latino voters. Latino electorate have a stronger faith in a purpose of government and by a large infancy support a Affordable Care Act and trust that a sovereign supervision should safeguard that all people have entrance to health insurance. Needless to say, these views are exclusive with those of Ted Cruz. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait compartment 2018 to see how these electorate will act when they have a fuller bargain of what Ted Cruz is about.

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